How Often Do Aces Actually Lose?

"My aces never hold." Chances are you've probably heard this one at the table before. You’re dealt the best hand in the game. You get the money in, and somehow the other player spikes a two-outer and drags your stack. Often it can feel like a curse. However, the maths is worth looking at.

Pocket aces are the best starting hand you can be dealt. But best is not safe and it's worth making the smart decisions when you've got this hand. Here's how often aces lose, heads-up and against the field, and why the answer is an argument for how you play them.

(A note on the numbers below: these are all-in preflop equities, run all the way to showdown. Aces also win plenty of pots by making opponents fold before showdown. The loss percentages here are the showdown figures, not your overall win rate with the hand.)

In heads-up, pocket aces win about 85% of the time and lose about 15%. That's roughly one loss in every seven.

So against one opponent, that 15% loss rate is a baked-in statistic. Play a hundred all-in coolers with aces against a single opponent, and you'll lose around fifteen of them.

The saying "aces always get cracked" is a bit of an exaggeration. On average, they hold far more often than they lose. But they lose a lot more often than beginners expect, and against a crowd it gets much worse.

Not every matchup is equal. Against one random hand it's 85/15, but the matchup shifts depending on what they're holding:

• Vs pocket kings: Aces win about 82%. Kings often run into aces, but it's not nearly as one-sided as it feels; kings still win almost one time in five.

• Vs ace-king: aces are at their strongest, winning about 93% against the offsuit version and about 88% against the suited one. Holding two of the aces yourself leaves ace-king little to work with.

• Vs a suited connector: for example, 8♣7♣ is about aces' poorest matchup. However, they still win about 77%. That's nearly a one-in-four loss. A suited, connected hand has many ways to make a straight or a flush, so it turns your pocket aces into a 3-to-1 favourite.

That last one is the tell. Even at their most vulnerable against a single hand, aces are a big favourite.

Here's where the numbers change. Watch what happens to aces' equity as you add opponents to an all-in pot:

• Against 2 opponents: about 73%

• Against 3 opponents: about 64%

• Against 4 opponents: about 56%

• Against a full table (eight or nine players all-in): only about 35%. often an underdog to the field as a whole

In a giant multiway all-in, pocket aces win barely one time in three. They're still the best individual hand at the table (no one would rather have a different two cards), but best hand and winning the pot have come completely apart.

The reason is every extra opponent brings two more cards and a fresh set of ways to beat you. Another player who can flop two pair, make a set, fill a straight, or complete a flush.

Your aces are one pair, and one pair (even the best one) can only fend off so many draws at once. Against one player, all those threats are in a single hand. Against eight, they're spread across the whole table, and the field will get there more often than you will.

No, but the myth survives because of how human memory works.

You forget the dozens of times your aces won a small pot. But, you do remember vividly the night they got beat by a rivered flush for your stack. Let's look at it this way. Having the best hand does not guarantee you're taking the pot.

Sure, pocket aces are the best hand you can be dealt. Getting the money in with them is getting it in good, and that's all you can ask of any hand. Second, losing with aces you got in ahead is often not a mistake you made, it's the variance and math. If you got it in as an 85% favourite and lost, you played the hand correctly and ran into the 15%.

The result doesn't change the quality of the decision. Avoid chasing to make up for it, it's how a normal cooler can become a bad session.

That's the healthy way to hold it. Aces losing sometimes isn't a curse on you, as sometimes even the best hand loses.

Here's a practical takeaway. If aces are a monster heads-up and a coin flip against the whole table, then the number of opponents you face is the single biggest factor on how often you win. And you can have a big say in it.

Limping with aces, or making a small raise that lets four players tag along, is handing away your edge. You're trading an ~85% heads-up favourite for something closer to a coin flip. Raising to thin the field (heads-up, three-handed) keeps you closer to winning range.

You'll win smaller pots more often instead of huge pots a third of the time, and over a career that trade is in your favour. Many strong players raise (and re-raise) their aces rather than trying to trap the entire table.

For the record, you'll get the chance to test all this about once every 221 hands. That's how often any given player is dealt pocket aces, the same for everyone. Cherish them, get the money in good, and make your peace with the 15%.

It's the math of the best hand in poker.