Poker Odds & Probabilities

Ever wondered why top poker pros always seem to make the right call? The answer lies in understanding poker odds.

Poker is a game of skill, but mathematical odds underpin every decision at the table. Knowing how to calculate poker odds will help you maximize profits, make smarter calls, and avoid costly mistakes.

This guide will show you how poker odds work, how to calculate outs (the cards that improve your hand), key probabilities for common poker situations, and when to call, raise, or fold based on odds.

What Are Poker Odds?

Poker odds refer to the probability of making a specific hand or winning a hand based on the cards available. They are usually expressed in two ways:

• Probability (%) - The chance of an event happening (e.g. hitting a flush draw = ~35%).
• Ratio Odds - How many times something won’t happen versus how often it will (e.g. 1.86:1 against hitting a flush).

Understanding these numbers helps you decide when to bet, call, or fold based on the likelihood of completing a strong hand. The lower the odds, the better the chance of hitting your draw.

Key Poker Odds You Need to Know

The first step in mastering poker odds is understanding key concepts:

• Outs: The number of remaining cards that can improve your hand.
• Pot Odds: The ratio of the current pot vs. the cost of a call.
• Implied Odds: Future potential winnings that justify calling now.

Understanding the Outs: How to Calculate Them

In Poker, outs refer to the number of unseen cards in the deck that can strengthen your hand, increasing your chances of winning. The more outs you have, the better your odds of hitting a strong hand.

Mastering outs helps you calculate probabilities quickly, determine whether calling a bet is worth it, and make more profitable decisions at the table.

Follow this step-by-step approach to calculate your outs:

1. Identify what hand you are drawing to (flush, straight, set, etc.).

2. Count how many unseen cards can complete your hand.

3. Subtract known cards from the deck (hole cards, board).

4. Use your outs to calculate probability and odds.

To better understand how this works, let's look at some common examples:

Example 1: Flush Draw

Your Hand: T♥ 9♥

Board: Q♥ 7♥ 2♠

You have four hearts and need one more to complete a flush.

There are 13 hearts in the deck, and 4 are visible (your 2 hole cards + 2 on the board).

Remaining outs = 9 hearts.

Outs = 9 → You now have the data to calculate your odds of hitting a flush.

Example 2: Open-Ended Straight Draw

Your Hand: 6♠ 7♦

Board: 5♣ 8♦ K♠

You need a 4 or 9 to complete your straight.

There are four 4s and four 9s left in the deck.

Outs = 8

Example 3: Gutshot Straight Draw

Your Hand: Q♦ J♦

Board: 10♠ 8♠ 2♣

You need a 9 to complete your straight.

There are four 9s left in the deck.

Outs = 4 (fewer than an open-ended straight, making this a lower-probability draw).

Example 4: Two Pair to a Full House

Your Hand: K♣ Q♣

Board: K♦ Q♦ 5♠

You need a King or a Queen to make a Full House.

There are two Kings and two Queens left in the deck.

Outs = 4

Why Outs Matter in Poker Strategy

By knowing your outs, you can quickly estimate your probability of improving your hand and make smarter betting decisions. Once you have the number of outs, you can:

• Calculate your odds of hitting your draw.
• Compare your pot odds to determine whether calling is profitable.
• Avoid costly mistakes by folding when the odds are against you.

Understanding outs is a fundamental skill that separates average players from strategic, winning players. Master this concept, and you’ll gain a significant edge at the poker table!

Common Poker Hands & Their Outs

The Rule of 4 and 2 (Quick Odds Estimation)

Instead of complex calculations, use a quick way to estimate your winning chances:

• After the flop: Multiply your outs by 4 to estimate your chance of improving by the river.
• After the turn: Multiply your outs by 2 to estimate your chance of improving on the river.

For example: If you have 10 outs after the flop:

• Turn + River → 10 × 4 ≈ 40% chance to hit by the river.
• River Only → 10 × 2 ≈ 20% chance to hit on the river.

Note: The actual probability will be slightly different, but this method is fast and effective.

Poker Odds: How to Calculate and Use Them

To make the best decisions, you must know how to convert between ratio odds and probability percentages.

How to Convert Ratio Odds to Percentage

• Add up both sides of the ratio (e.g. 4:1 → 4+1 = 5).
• Divide 100 by that sum (e.g. 100 ÷ 5 = 20%).

For example: If the odds of hitting your flush are 4:1, then your probability is 20%.

How to Convert Percentage to Ratio Odds

• Divide 100 by the percentage (e.g. 100 ÷ 20 = 5).
• Subtract 1 (5 - 1 = 4).
• Express it as a ratio: 4:1 odds against.

Understanding Pot Odds: How to Calculate Them

Pot odds help you decide if it's worth calling a bet. They tell you how much you could potentially win compared to how much you need to bet to stay in the hand. Think of it as a risk-reward calculation.

Follow this step-by-step approach to calculate your pot odds:

1. Determine the pot size after your call. This includes the current pot, your opponent's bet, and your call.

2. Compare your call amount to the total pot size after you call.

3. Turn it into a ratio or percentage to make the comparison easier to understand.

Example: Should You Call a $50 Bet?

• Current pot = $100
• Opponent bets = $50
• Your call = $50
• Total pot if you call = $200
• Your pot odds = $50 / $200 = 25%

Decision:

• If your chance of winning is higher than 25%, call.
• If it's lower than 25%, fold.

Pot odds help you decide if a call is mathematically sound. Good poker players only make calls when the odds justify it.

If you think your hand has a better than 25% chance of winning, then calling is a good idea. If you think your hand has less than a 25% chance of winning, folding is the better play.

Poker Hand Odds Chart

This chart provides a quick reference for the probabilities of common poker hands.

The rarer the hand, the higher the payout in many poker formats.

Odds of Hitting Common Draws

Implied Odds: How Do They Work

Implied odds refer to the future bets you can win if your hand becomes strong later on. Unlike pot odds, which only consider the current pot, implied odds account for potential payouts on later in the hand.

Think of it as a risk vs. reward calculation—sometimes, even if the pot odds don’t justify a call, the extra money you expect to win makes it worthwhile.

Example of Implied Odds:

• You hold J♠ 10♠ on a board of K♠ Q♣ 3♦.
• You need an Ace or 9 for a straight.
• There are 8 outs → giving you a 32% chance to hit by the river.
• If the pot is $100, and the opponent bets $50, the pot odds might not justify a call right now.
• But if you expect to win extra bets if you hit, your implied odds make calling profitable.

Always consider future winnings when deciding whether to call a bet.

Reverse Implied Odds

Reverse implied odds indicate that you could win a little now but lose a lot later. So, this concept is seriously important for avoiding deceptive situations that can trap you into losing big pots.

Example of Reverse Implied Odds:

You hold J♦5♦, and the flop is 10♥9♣5♥.

Right now, you have a pair of fives (5♦5♥). Not great, but not terrible.

The turn is a J♥.

Now, you have two pair, Jacks (J♦J♥) and fives (5♦5♥).

Reverse implied odds: While your hand improved, there are now much stronger hands possible:

• Someone could have King and Queen (K,Q) and have a straight.
• Someone could have a flush if they were holding two hearts.
• Someone else may have a better two pair or a set.

Here, improving your hand doesn't guarantee a win. In fact, it could just mean bigger losses later.

Applying Odds In High-Pressure Situations

Knowing how to apply odds in high-pressure situations is the mark of a true poker champion. If you can do this, you'll dominate critical moments and maximize your edge when the stakes are highest.

Preflop Decision Making

The preflop is the first stage of a poker hand before the first three community cards (the flop) are dealt. During the preflop, you need to decide if your hand is worth playing. You can do this using pot odds and implied odds.

Example: Making a Preflop Call

You're playing a 6-player game and are in a good position at the table (the button). You have 7♠ and 6♠. A player raises to 3 big blinds (3 times the standard bet). This makes the total pot 4.5 big blinds, and you need to pay 3 big blinds to stay in.

Here's how to decide what to do:

• Pot odds: You're risking 3 big blinds to win a pot that will be 7.5 big blinds after your call. So, you're getting pot odds of about 2.5 to 1. In percentage terms, you need to win around 29% of the time to break even.
• Your hand equity: Your hand has about a 33% chance of winning against the range of hands your opponent likely has.
• Decision: As your hand's chance of winning (33%) is higher than the percentage you need to break even (29%), you should make the call.

Postflop Play with Draws

The period after the first three community cards are dealt is called the postflop. During the postflop, your hand might have the potential to improve. These are called draws, and this is how to play them:

• Count your outs precisely.
• Estimate your odds using the rule of 4 and 2.
• Compare your hand equity to pot odds.
• Factor in implied odds for borderline decisions.

Example: How to Play Draws Postflop

You have A♥Q♥, and the flop is K♥T♣3♥.

• You have 12 outs (9 hearts for a flush and 3 Jacks for a straight).
• Using the 4 and 2 rule, you see that your chance of improving your hand on the next two cards is about 48%. You also know that your chance of improving on the next card is around 25%.
• Your opponent bets half the pot, giving you 3:1 pot odds. So, you need to win 25% of the time.
• Your chance of improving on the next two cards (about 48%) is higher than the 25% you need, meaning you should call.

Understanding Variance in Poker

Variance is a relatively advanced concept, but you need to have some understanding of it. If you don't, you might incorrectly blame your strategy for losses.

Variance means that even when you make the correct mathematical decisions, short-term results can vary due to sheer luck (big wins or losses).

Over a large sample of hands, a solid poker strategy and long term skill will get you the results you crave. However, in the short term, even the best poker player will experience downswings.

By understanding variance, you can stay focused on long-term profitability and stick to good bankroll management to ride out a downswing.

What does that look like?

For example: Even with 80% odds to win, you will lose 1 in 5 times—so don’t tilt when variance hits!

For a comprehensive understanding of poker strategy, check out our in-depth guide.

FAQs

What is the most common mistake players make when calculating odds?

The most common mistake players make when calculating odds is mixing up probability (expressed as a percentage) with odds (expressed as a ratio). This leads to incorrect calculations and bad decisions.

Do online poker odds differ from live poker odds?

No. However, online poker is faster than live poker, meaning you have less time to calculate odds and probability.

Ready to Elevate Your Poker Game?

Now that you’ve got a handle on poker odds, it’s time to put that knowledge to the test. The best way to level up is by practicing into real hands, where you can use pot odds, outs, and implied odds in the heat of the moment. Whether you’re at a virtual poker table or in a live setting, getting a grip on these concepts will definitely give you a significant advantage over your opponents.

Find out about our WPT Global poker games to refine your strategy further, or download the WPT Global app to practice different scenarios.